It was never really in doubt, but Brendan Moylan was officially declared elected as the member for the Northern Tablelands today.
The New South Wales Electoral Commission declared Moylan elected at 10:39am on Wednesday, 10 July 2024. The gap between election day and the formal declaration is largely due to the legally required time frame for postal votes to be returned.
Moylan was easily elected on first preference votes, receiving 31,203 votes or 67.93% of the vote. The two-candidate-preferred vote came in at 81.93% for Moylan, and 18.07% for the elusive Shooters Farmers and Fishers candidate Ben Smith. The final preference distribution was significantly different from election night, where the NSWEC had done the indicative count based on their assumption that the Green’s Dorothy Robinson would be the other last candidate standing.
By-election results are always an aberration, and nothing can be inferred from them in terms of what might happen in any other election, but there were two remarkable things about this election.
Firstly, this is the first time in the history of the electorate called the Northern Tablelands that the seat has transition from one member to their successor from the same party. Despite the myth that the region always votes National, the records are clear that every other time there has been a change of member since the electorate was established over 40 years ago, the party affiliation has changed too.
Representatives for the Northern Tablelands
| Member | Party | Term | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill McCarthy | Labor | 1981–1987 | |
| Ray Chappell | National | 1987–1999 | |
| Richard Torbay | Independent | 1999–2013 | |
| Adam Marshall | National | 2013–2024 | |
| Brendan Moylan | National | 2024–present | |
Secondly, the Northern Tablelands continues to be the safest held seat in the state. Moylan’s 81.93% 2PP is only a fraction below Marshall’s 2023 result of 83.8%. The margin (which is calculated by subtracting one 2CP vote percentage from the other to find the difference between the two, then dividing by two and adding 1 vote) drops equally slightly from 33.8 to 31.9. It is the only seat in the state with a margin above 30%.
It will be up to Mr Moylan to deliver as his predecessor did, and the variable of whether a serious alternative candidate emerges at the next election, to continue that remarkable achievement.
Mr Moylan made a quick trip to Sydney today to get things organised at Parliament House, and is expected to be formally sworn in next week.
Top image: Brendan Moylan with National Party colleagues on election night (supplied).
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