Labor is in the box seat to form the next federal government, with new polling showing it’s within just one seat of forming a majority as the election campaign gets under way.
The latest YouGov modelling shows Labor set to win 75 seats at the May 3 election, while the coalition would win just 60 seats. This aligns with the New England Times Engage Poll which has been pointing consistently towards Labor being re-elected.
Parties need to get 76 seats for a majority, but the modelling showed a reversal of fortune for Labor, who was trailing in a similar poll released in February. It is not uncommon for the first poll after the election is called to show a change as the attention of the voting public shifts and campaign momentum takes hold.
The YouGov model revealed Labor would lose five seats to the opposition, but would win two seats back from the Greens and one from the coalition.
The modelling was carried out through interviews with 38,629 people people between February 27 and March 26, with the survey results modelled across all 150 electorates. Electorate level polling and modelling is always considerably more inaccurate than national averages.
The modelling projected Labor could win as few as 69 seats and as many as 80 seats, with 75 being the most likely outcome.
Meanwhile, the coalition would lose three seats, including the electorates belonging to opposition housing spokesman Michael Sukkar and the party’s immigration spokesman Dan Tehan.
The coalition’s range was between 55 and 68 seats.
All teal independents would regain their electorates under the modelling, except for Kylea Tink, whose seat was abolished and is not standing again.
“Labor is only one seat short of forming government due to a small but decisive shift away from the coalition by working voters in key marginal seats driven by dislike of coalition policies to stop work from home and sacking 40,000 government workers,” YouGov’s director of public data Paul Smith said.
“The turnaround is because of a 1.3 per cent swing to Labor which sees the coalition fall behind in 10 marginal seats that they were projected to win in our previous projection.”
The New England Times Engage Poll, produced by parent company KORE CSR, uses a very different methodology based on political psychology and sociology theories rather than traditional political science approaches. The cause for the consistent support for a Labor Government return in the Engage Poll points to more intangible factors, such as a strong dislike and lack of trust for Peter Dutton, rather than any particular policy issue.
With no significant challenger in either New England or Parkes as yet stepping forward, the National Party is confidently expected to retain both seats. The biggest contest locally is in Cowper, which encompasses Port Macquarie to Coffs Harbour, where a well funded Teal Independent campaign for Caz Heise is taking on The Nationals’ Pat Conaghan, with modelling showing challenger Caz Heise may win the seat.
Voters will head to the polls on May 3, with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton both looking to claim the underdog card.
Follow all the New England Times coverage of the federal election here or have your say on Engage
See more about the race in New England here
See more about the race in Parkes here