RESULTS: New England is National Party heartland, with the very identities of the both the party and the region intertwined for as long as anyone can remember. But the results of the latest New England Times Engage Poll indicate this long term love affair may be at risk of ending.
A near perfect sample of 580 respondents, evenly spread across all age groups, perfectly balanced by gender, and proportionally spread across the range of National, Labor, Independent, and minor party supporters, participated in this poll. 90% were within the New England electorate.
We’re still not going to publish vote intention figures, sorry. They’re meaningless at this point in the election cycle. However, the result for this question has been fairly stable for the last couple of polls, so we are going to start publishing preferred outcome.
Preferred outcome is often a farm more predictive question than vote intention, particularly in rural electorates where who you vote for is much more personality based than party. The other/undecided is always high in the New England, but when only three quarters of those who describe themselves as National Party supporters want the Coalition to win, and less than 10% of independent and minor party voters want the Coalition to win – in a conservative heartland like the New England – Mr Dutton and Mr Littleproud, you have a problem.
As is always the case with KORE Polls, most of what we gather and assess is qualitative not quantitative (words, not numbers). Because it is always when people use their own words that we come to understand what is actually going on. Setting aside the Labor Party supporters and Barnaby haters for a moment, it is in the words of the National Party supporters where the issue reveals itself: the party has lost its way. Phrases like ‘weak’, ‘ineffectual’, ‘lost their way’, ‘no longer represent us’, ‘sold out’, and ‘out of touch’ dominated responses.
The following are all from people who identified themselves (through multiple metrics) as being supporters of the National Party:
“Wish they still represented the values from the country party”
50-54 year old man from Walcha area
“At times, they have lost their appeal to country voters”
60-64 year old woman from Quirindi area
“Sadly they are not there for the country people anymore”
70-74 year old woman from Kootingal area
“I have gone from being a staunch National’s voter to a “best of bad options” Nationals voter. I think they have failed the people they represent but they are the only major party that even remotely cares about people outside of the major cities”
30-34 year old man from Armidale
But, while the people feel the party has lost its way, the Barnaby supporters haven’t budged. Oh, and for those that think women don’t like Barnaby? Think again. Some of the strongest comments in support of Barnaby Joyce were from younger women.
“Love Barnaby hate the others”
25-29 year old woman from Walcha area
“Barnaby stands up for regional Australia and the electorate and he’s a great local member.”
30-34 year old woman from Armidale
At least a spade is a spade! No bull shit with Barnaby and that’s what this country – and us as its people needs.
40-44 year old woman from Guyra
The comments from men in favour of Barnaby were more about delivering than swagger. For example:
New England has done very well under Barnaby and he is a tenacious fighter for our region. There will always be noisy haters but I see no reason for change locally.
60-64 year old man from Tamworth
Plenty of noisy haters there are indeed. Here’s a selection from locals – you’ll note they’re generally fairly respectful even when they don’t like him. And most of those who don’t like him were below the Moonbi’s (the Moonbi’s are big mountains between Tamworth and Armidale for the uninitiated – typically, National Party support is stronger below the Moonbi’s).
Election after election, I can never believe how many people vote for Barnaby – why, how, why?
45-49 year old woman from Tamworth
“Barnaby is an embarrassment with no backbone or moral standing. He consistently says whatever he needs to to stay in politics, and has a long history of flip flopping whichever way the wind blows.”
40-44 year old man from Tamworth
“I used to be a staunch national party voter then Barnaby got in. No more. A drunkard, womanising wastrel.”
60-64 year old man from Tamworth
But New Englanders are also very conscious of the problem – no one ever puts forward a serious challenge to Joyce.
It’s not a case of “not nationals” but “anyone but Barnaby” and for the other parties, stop putting up candidates who couldn’t win a school debate, let alone hold a candle to the most disgraceful individual the Nats could put forward.
45-49 year old man from Tamworth
Let’s go back to the bigger party problem. Is that the Nats are too close to the Liberals? Not really.
Is it that they don’t like Littleproud? Well… they like him, they just don’t think he’s a strong enough leader. Overall it’s just a bit ‘meh’.
Do they want Barnaby back as leader? Well overall no, but the party supporters and members do, and theirs is the only opinion that matters on this question.
Was there anything else that could be identified as core to the lack of joyful enthusiasm amongst National Party supporters?
Yes. Too close to mining, at the expense of farmers.
“They have sold out rural people, and only ever represented the elite landholders. Now they are totally beholden to fossil fuel miners.”
60-64 year old man from Tamworth
“If they actually stood up for farmers and rural communities, rather than miners and mega-farms, they might actually be a party worth voting for.”
25-29 year old woman from Armidale
“They no longer represent rural and regional interests but only miners and big corporate farmers, our rural communities are disappearing with corporate farming and FIFO miners employed by overseas mining companies that pay little or no tax in Australia and often are exempt from royalties as well as receiving subsidies from government. The support for fracking in the Great Artesian Basin on some of our best farming land is a testament to their stupidity and Labor are only marginally better. Our region is bereft of decent roads, transport, health and educational infrastructure, and underfunding of local government. With the Nationals having been part of government for the vast majority of the last 80 years shows how useless they are.”
70-74 year old woman from Glen Innes
Once I would have said The Nationals represent country people, the agricultural sector and secondary industry. Now, miners interests seem to be their main concern.
70-74 year old man from Quirindi area
So is the New England ready to dump The Nationals? The overwhelming consensus is that the Nationals have already dumped us. Even some of the Barnaby supporters comment that he hasn’t been around much lately. But until there is a viable alternative, we’re stuck in same house, just sleeping in different bedrooms and trying to make the best of it.
The next poll on the Labor Party is open now.
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